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The bad news: mixed messages

By DERMOD TRAVIS – communications consultant

In analyzing the results of the Oracle Research survey, some context is necessary to fully appreciate what some of the results may mean for the Elizabeth May campaign.

 

The most important part of that context is that the May campaign has been on the ground in Saanich-Gulf Islands (SGI) for a year and according to various sources has invested upwards of $300,000 in the campaign.

 

Yet, despite this effort, only 29 per cent of respondents in the Oracle survey were familiar with Elizabeth May and, of those, thirty-six per cent either had an unfavourable or neutral opinion of the candidate, with the highest percentage of those unfavourable or neutral opinions coming from those who live on the Saanich Peninsula where May desperately needs to win support in order to have any hope of carrying the riding.

 

Taking results from both the Harris-Decima and McAllister Opinion Research surveys commissioned by the party and the Oracle survey commissioned by GPS, May is either stagnant in the polls after a year of campaigning or may even have fallen in support after accounting for different polling methods and margins of error between the three polls.

 

According to the Harris-Decima survey taken last year, May was in a statistical tie with Gary Lunn at 33 per cent. This month’s Oracle Research survey had her nearly two points behind Lunn at 28.3 per cent. And the party’s McAllister Opinion Research poll taken in August had May at 32 per cent.

 

And if the May campaign’s website is any indication of the campaign’s local messaging, the narrative of the campaign is clearly off-key for local concerns regardless of whether the respondent resides on the Gulf Islands or the Saanich Peninsula.

 

Visit the May campaign website and only three local issues are currently highlighted: agriculture, democracy and transportation. Not one of these issues was identified as the most important issue facing Canada by a single respondent in the Oracle survey.

 

And it’s on this very question where both geographic areas of the riding are in near total agreement across all issues identified. For instance, 32.5 percent of Gulf Island residents list the economy as the most important issue as do 35.0 per cent of residents of the Saanich Peninsula.

 

The economy has been the one issue where the party has historically polled weakly with Canadian voters. According to a 2008 Nanos Research survey only one per cent of Canadians felt the Green party was the most trusted party on the economy and jobs.

 

SGI may also have been chosen by the party for May based solely on the results of its Harris-Decima poll without taking other factors into account particularly the strength of the local EDA and its experience.

 

However, SGI does offer one of the few ridings in Canada where a three or four way split is historically more likely, allowing a Green party candidate to emerge on top, as was the case for Caroline Lucas in Brighton Pavilion in the last British election.

 

Lucas won Brighton Pavilion with 31.3 per cent of the vote over Labour at 28.9 per cent and the Conservatives at 23.7 per cent. The Liberal-Democrats were in fourth place at 13.8 per cent.

 

It’s why the May campaign needs to be worried about two other results in the Oracle survey. Thirty-five per cent of respondents thought that Canada was headed in the right direction under Stephen Harper and 30 per cent felt that the Conservatives were the most trusted party to run Canada. The Liberals trailed at 19 per cent.

 

These two results may indicate Gary Lunn’s bedrock support and if they do, he’s likely only a handful of points away from being reelected; points that he may already have in the bag through a superior, tested organization.

 

The May campaign needs to find a narrative that does not alienate Conservative voters in SGI and instead attract them, because there are two other candidates in the race who will be splitting the anti-Lunn/Conservative voter with her and for May to go over the top she’ll need some of Lunn’s traditional support base, not just those of her centre left opponents.

 

 

Next up: Observations from close-by and afar

 

The greenpartystrategy.ca poll was conducted by Oracle Research who has conducted surveys for the Green party since 2001.

 

A total of 400 voting age residents of Saanich-Gulf Islands were interviewed in the survey.  Interviews were conducted between the days of August 5^th and August 10^th 2010. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 per cent, 19/20 times. Greenpartystrategy.ca will be releasing the full report at the end of this series.

 

 

Dermod Travis is former Director of Communications for the Green Party of Canada and organized the Green Party's 2006 National Convention